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  #11 (permalink)  
Old 01-09-2008, 07:29 PM
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I think it's a valid concern but it's not as imminent as he makes it out to be. And I do believe, contrary to the author, that we will be able to use our ingenuity and technology to mitigate it. Not that it will happen before we realize it and it's too late.
Okay, thanks.

Considering the wisdom and wit of the statement in your sig, who knows what might happen!
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Old 01-09-2008, 09:19 PM
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Maybe we didn't hit peak-oil in late '05 but it's most likely that we're past it now. In order to avert the obvious economic consequences that go along with it we would've need Reagan to carry on in the direction of Jimmy Carter.

We already have the technology we need. The problem is the downward spiral that happens when people can't afford the new technology and the old technology also becomes increasingly expensive to operate.

The only positive flicker that i see is that, 10 years ago, all predictions pointed to the world having 10 billion people by 2010. We haven't even reached 7 billion yet and unless things change radically in the next year we might just be reaching 7 billion by then. IMHO i think we're leveling off and may even slide back a bit.
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Old 01-10-2008, 10:42 AM
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Old 01-10-2008, 11:10 AM
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Eh, been there, done that. Media in the 70's were full of stories about global economic collapse, impending resource wars and the new ice age waiting to crush civilization.

Instead, we got unprecedented economic growth, falling resource prices and a new tune called global warming.

I've posted elsewhere about sky-is-falling economist Paul Ehrlich and how completely wrong he was.

On the other hand, if you predict over and over again that the world is in its last days, eventually, you will be right.
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Old 01-10-2008, 11:11 AM
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dorks can be sexy too.
And he attempts to derail his own thread.
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Old 01-10-2008, 11:18 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KENfmt View Post
I think it's a valid concern but it's not as imminent as he makes it out to be. And I do believe, contrary to the author, that we will be able to use our ingenuity and technology to mitigate it. Not that it will happen before we realize it and it's too late.
And that is the beauty of capitalism and free market. Once fossil alternative fuel sources become cheaper than fossil based (by their cost going down and/or fossil goign up) the economy will switch.

People will tend to do what is most profitable for them.

Also, what is ironic about the writer's claims is that, he speaks of the Soviet union and the marxists claimed the West would fall due to economic and social collapse ... they seemed to make it out of the Great Depression and WW II relatively well. Just sort of funny that someone raised as a communist is basing his theory on his country's failed policies.
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Old 01-10-2008, 11:49 AM
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And that is the beauty of capitalism and free market. Once fossil alternative fuel sources become cheaper than fossil based (by their cost going down and/or fossil goign up) the economy will switch.

People will tend to do what is most profitable for them.
Just so long as you are willing to ignore the tragedy of the commons, which I realize you are apparently willing to do.

Last edited by fietserjim : 01-10-2008 at 12:04 PM.
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Old 01-10-2008, 12:01 PM
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Just so long as you are willing to ignore the tragedy of the commons, which I realize you are plenty willing to do.
That is quite a claim against me based on an assumption. I made no comment on social impact. I merely was stating that the increasing price of oil is not going to create the fall of Western civilization because at some point a different energy source will be more affordable than oil based on supply and demand structures and lowering cost of technology.

Can you actually pose an example where I have said to sell out the common good for economic interests? In fact, throughout my post history, I am a huge supporter of strengthening the middle class and creating an environment of sustainable upward mobility of the lower class into the middle class.

Government intervention is not a magic wand. Money comes form the people that programs are supposed to save them money. Remember every time the government subsidizes something, that money is still coming from you at some point. If the government spends $5 billion dollars to lower society's energy bills, it had to take that $5 billion from society to begin with. So it may lower the cost in one area by raising costs across multiple.
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Last edited by raider.adam : 01-10-2008 at 12:05 PM.
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Old 01-10-2008, 12:09 PM
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There, I edited it to make it more accurate. It seems to me that citing the market as sufficient to deal with the world's energy problems, given the evidence of and threat posed by climate change, demonstrates a willingness to ignore the tragedy of the commons, but if I'm wrong, I apologize.
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Old 01-10-2008, 12:22 PM
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There, I edited it to make it more accurate. It seems to me that citing the market as sufficient to deal with the world's energy problems, given the evidence of and threat posed by climate change, demonstrates a willingness to ignore the tragedy of the commons, but if I'm wrong, I apologize.
But cheap oil has no affect on climate change? Peak Oil theory is not about global warming. Peak Oil is about market forces. If your concern is climate change and the non-economic effects of fossil fuels, that is a different topic.

When it comes to environmental and ecological of fossil usage, I am not sold on the idea that it is the sole or majority reason for global warming, but I still believe it needs to be addressed based on a pollution and quality of life issue. Pollution is pollution whether it is causing global warming or not.
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