Chavez (Venezuala) Loses Constitutional Amendment - Page 2 - PhillyBlog

MayfairMeat · #11 (**permalink**) 12-03-2007, 10:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eldondre

I'd bet most Russians like Putin and don't care as much for democracy. the belief that Russia is best ruled by a benevolent autocrat has a long, deep history and doesn't seem to have dissipated.
As for Venezuela, it's easy to say what people should have done, but in their position it's also easy to understand why they thought it would be rigged. I was happy to see he accepted the results (at least for now) as I thought there would be a good chance he'd blame any loss on the US and dimiss the vote.

Yeah, but is Chavez going to abide by term limits (which this measure was supposed to eliminate?)

I smell a constitutional crisis coming.

Dave · #12 (**permalink**) 12-03-2007, 10:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EastChestnut

Yeah, but is Chavez going to abide by term limits (which this measure was supposed to eliminate?)

I smell a constitutional crisis coming.

He usually just has the supreme court "interpret" the constitution however he wants when it says something he doesn't like. I think I actually heard there's some sort of referendum clause in there he plans to use to get another term... don't know a whole lot about the issue, though.

Towelie · #13 (**permalink**) 12-04-2007, 01:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dave

He usually just has the supreme court "interpret" the constitution however he wants when it says something he doesn't like. I think I actually heard there's some sort of referendum clause in there he plans to use to get another term... don't know a whole lot about the issue, though.

He'll probably pull a Gen Musharraf.

#14 (**permalink**) 12-04-2007, 02:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Towelie

He'll probably pull a Gen Musharraf.

The coming event, or lack of them, will prove a lot about his character, and thus the quality of his idea. We shall see.

eldondre · #15 (**permalink**) 12-04-2007, 10:55 AM

Quote:

By JOSÉ DE CÓRDOBA and JOHN LYONS...Despite the result, Mr. Chávez will remain a major force. He still enjoys a deep reservoir of support among the country's majority poor and working class. He controls the country's courts, most of its media, the congress and almost all local and state governments. He is also a recognized comeback king. In 2002, he was knocked out of power for two days but came back. And in 1998, only four years after being released from prison for his unsuccessful 1992 coup attempt, Mr. Chávez was elected president of Venezuela for the first time...
The main lesson for Mr. Chávez from the vote could be that he needs to focus on issues of popular concern such as the economy and crime. His ideas about so-called 21st-century socialism and performances on the international stage, including his gibes at President Bush, didn't help him much with voters.
"People are tired of his bombast after nine years of nearly constant mobilization," says Peter Hakim, president of the Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington think tank. "His magic and charm are wearing thin next to the still poor quality of government services."
Mr. Chávez has used oil money to direct billions of dollars in health and food subsidies. The spending has created make-work jobs and put money in people's pockets, but other economic policies like price controls have backfired. Basics like rice, sugar, milk and chicken are sometimes hard to find in a country where the economy is booming from oil wealth. Crime is another problem area. While Mr. Chávez gives Venezuela's oil money to allies around Latin America, violent crime is rising in Venezuela's cities. The poor -- Mr. Chávez's base -- suffer the most because the rich insulate themselves behind bodyguards and high walls....
Mr. Chávez had predicted a 10-percentage-point victory in the referendum and was seemingly unaware that many of his supporters could defect. One explanation is a heavy travel schedule that leaves him less time for domestic affairs. Another is the isolation that comes with power.
"Strongmen often surround themselves with sycophants who tell them what they want to hear," said Riordan Roett, director of Western Hemisphere Studies at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore. "They get carried away by the soothing tones of their advisers."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119666016117711628.html

Dave · #16 (**permalink**) 12-04-2007, 10:24 PM

The map below has referendum results, state by state. it's sort of the opposite of what happened here in 2000: most states voted "yes" but the "no" states have most of the population, so the popular vote narrowly went for the "no" vote.

Interestingly, the state where "yes" won with the highest margin (Amazonas, the big one hanging down at the border with Brazil) has a relatively small population of mostly native americans.

http://www.noticias24.com/actualidad/?p=10206

jedisalf · #17 (**permalink**) 12-05-2007, 11:47 AM

You can not take official sources for granted. Specially from the Consejo SUpremo Electoral (Venezuelan secretary of elections).

I mean, is like quoting official press from North Korea on something.

Heres an example, our voters database is available for the public online, you can just go to the website, type in your ID number, and it will show wheres your voting center located, and your current address.

Well, Venezuelas goverment is so shameless, that they didnt even tried to "hide" part of their dirty work (this was during the previous elections, have to check if stills remains) So there were long lists of several random persons IDs on teh newspapers or internet blogs, that you could chekc online and it will show dead persons registered to vote, addresses with more than 50 persons living in it (a house or apartment I mean), people with more than 110 years old voting, and one of the most publicly "errors" a colombian drug dealer!!!!!!....at the time he was actually hiding from colombian authorities, and he was resgitered with a fake venezuelan ID, and living in Maracay (a city), and registered to vote (being colombian)

I can go on, and on but I wont, I will try though to find some of these ID's for you to check, if theyre still available.

Bottomline, do not take official sources as truth on a "regime" as the one in Venezuela.

jedisalf · #18 (**permalink**) 12-05-2007, 12:23 PM

ok, heres something I found to prove my point.

Go to the Consejo Nacional Electoral, again the Venezuelan office in charge of handling the electoral processes.

http://www.cne.gov.ve/

Now, right in that page, to the right side, on top you'll find a field where you can enter your ID numbers (you can pick V or E, this stands for if youre VENEZUELAN, or FOREIGNER with legal residency, for this just leave it in the default V)

We have an unique ID number, kinda like the drivers license for the US, but its our ID, and its unique, it started several years ago (a long time) and nowadays is around the 22 million or something, for instance I was born in 1976 and my ID number is 13112... (wont show the last 3 digits for privacy reasons), people will get their ID numbers when theyre about 6 to 8 years old.

Ok, now type in this numbers:

V 6842091
V 15912536
V 11041950
V 6995044
V 13697891
V 11488459
V 10074314
V 11836572
V 6979976
V 6056
V 10095173

You will get the following:

-ID number
-Full name
-Voting center's name
-Voting center's address
-state
-county
-city or neighboorhood

Well, on the numbers above, you will notice theyre the same name, ok might be possible, but some of the voting centers are the same....now what are the odds of that?, 2 persons with the same name that vote in the same place (so they live nearby)

Now check this one:

V 19290454
V 18388462

They're the same exact person, voting in the same exact center. Btw, thats a pretty weird unusual name to have, its not like John or Peter or something. they were actually 2 more ID numbers with the same name, but they got fixed

Try this one:

V 10
It shows a person, but with a ID 10 must be more than 100 years old, well, they added in red letters that the person is more than 100 years old, that if any family could contact the CNE to show prove that hes alive or dead.

This is new, wanst there in previous elections, and of course they fixed several low ID numbers

Now, I havent found yet the colombian druglord registered for voting example, it was probably fixed anyways, but heres a link from a mayor internet forum in venezuela, this thread in particular shows slides from a powerpoint presentationwith several examples of same persons voting several times, or other types.

http://www.noticierodigital.com/foru...ht=rep+cedulas

Its in spanish, but you can pretty much look at the amount of suspicious IDs that 1 person found, multiply this for hundreds or even millions, and you know how Chavez has won in the past.

Stills worries me how and why Chavez accepted defeat this time, something happened, or it will. Time will tell.

markedixon · #19 (**permalink**) 12-05-2007, 02:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dave

He usually just has the supreme court "interpret" the constitution however he wants when it says something he doesn't like.

It might happen. But, if it did, it would not be the first time a government official interpreted a constitution to suit his purposes. And Venezuela would not be the first country in which it happened.

jedisalf · #20 (**permalink**) 12-05-2007, 05:09 PM

Ok, I guess Chavez actually didnt accept the victory as easy.

This is major newspaper from venezuela, from today, Im going to copy and paste what he said, and then translate into english:

http://www.eluniversal.com/2007/12/0...A1245919.shtml

Quote:

"Aquí lo que hay es dignidad. Dejen quieto lo que está quieto. Sepan administrar su victoria pero ya la están llenando de m..... es una victoria de m..... y la nuestra, llámenla derrota pero es de coraje, es de valor, es de dignidad. Golpea Imperio. No nos hemos movido un mílimetro. Nos moveremos. ¡Vamos adelante!"

"Theres dignity here. Leave alone what's still. Know how to manage your victory but you're already filling it with s....es a victory full of s.... and ours, call it defeat but it's really courage, bravery, dignity. Hit us empire. We haven't moved a milimiter. Come on!"

As you can see, he didnt take it so well, the insulting "S" word is not new in our president's mouth, same as naming and blaming Bush and the US of everything (the Empire reference).

Rumor has it that it was the higher Army Ranks that forced him to accept the defeat, and today the Secretary of Defense, gave a press conference saying this was a lie. (why he would bother to do this?)

Anyhow, in the same speech, CHavez said that theyre already preparing a way to still do the constitution changes without the need of the referendum.