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  #21 (permalink)  
Old 04-29-2008, 11:16 AM
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Originally Posted by Zigster View Post
I suppose some of it is due to panic, some of it due to a weakened dollar, and some of it is due to speculation. Of course some of it is due to supply and demand but oil consumption has not risen enough to justify $120 barrel oil. I am not saying we won't see $200 oil soon, but I am just saying it will fall in the near term (like the next two months). (fwiw I bought DCR at 3.52)
Fair enough.
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Old 04-29-2008, 11:34 AM
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Originally Posted by ddelorenzo View Post
The Albertan Tar Sands are estimated to have 1,750 billion barrels of heavy crude with about 10% recoverable with current technologies.

The Green River formation of oil shale under Colorado and Utah has the equivalent of an estimated 1,500 billion barrels of shale oil and gas, with roughly a quarter to a third of that estimated to be recoverable.
It takes a ton of heat (mostly from natural gas) to extract those resources and I think that natural gas prices are going to escalate, esp with more restrictions on Iranian gas and lack of investment in Russian gas.

It seems these days that the only type of power generation that isn't opposed is natural gas - I am worried that we are becoming very overdependent on one type of fuel that comes from rather unfriendly nations.
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Old 04-29-2008, 01:04 PM
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IIt seems these days that the only type of power generation that isn't opposed is natural gas - I am worried that we are becoming very overdependent on one type of fuel that comes from rather unfriendly nations.
And why are they unfriendly?

Because we made them that way.....
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  #24 (permalink)  
Old 04-29-2008, 01:42 PM
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Originally Posted by EastChestnut View Post
BTW, the Populism movement started thanks to massive joblessness and destitution. Things aren't bad right now... they're just mere "annoyances."
I thought it started when farmers were angling for devaluation (the silverites) because decades of deflation that benefitted the urbanization of America had taken its toll on farmers.
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Old 04-29-2008, 08:31 PM
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Default Definition of Peak oil

http://www.energybulletin.net/primer.php
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Old 05-01-2008, 11:46 AM
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http://edition.cnn.com/2008/BUSINESS...rss_topstories

Quote:
Shell's profit soars to record $9 billion

AMSTERDAM, Netherlands (AP) -- Royal Dutch Shell's has reported a 25 percent rise in first-quarter earnings, crediting strong increases in energy prices.

Shell's first-quarter profit has soared to $9.08 billion thanks to record prices for crude oil.

Europe's largest oil company said Tuesday its average selling price of crude oil leaped by 66 percent to over $90 per barrel from the first quarter a year ago.

That sent net profit soaring to a record $9.08 billion. Sales were up 55 percent to $114 billion.

Chief Executive Jeroen van der Veer said in a statement the strong numbers were due to a "good operating performance, combined with increased oil and gas prices."

Earnings from oil production rose 52 percent to $5.14 billion.

Analysts say the performance was impressive.
Quote:
The combined profit for the two companies was close to $17 billion—$9.08 billion for Shell and $7.6 billion for BP. These figures include earnings attributed to the rise in oil prices. If this rise is factored out (as is done in the so-called current cost of supplies figures), Shell’s profits were $7.8 billion and BP’s were $6.6 billion. That is, at least $2 billion in profit for the two companies can be attributed solely to the recent rise in oil prices.

Analysts expect the profits for Exxon Mobil, the largest private energy company, to soar to $11.2 billion in the first quarter, an increase of 22 percent over 2007. If the company’s profits exceed expectations, however, it could beat its fourth quarter profits from 2007 of $11.66 billion—the record for a US company.
This is one very similar I grabbed from 2005 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...102700449.html

Quote:
Exxon Mobil Profit Soars 75%

By Justin Blum
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, October 28, 2005; Page D01

High prices for crude oil, gasoline and natural gas helped Exxon Mobil Corp. to its highest-ever quarterly profit, $9.92 billion, up 75 percent from the third quarter last year, the company said yesterday.

Profit in the third quarter at the world's largest publicly traded oil company set an industry record, and its sales of $100.72 billion were the highest in a quarter by U.S. company, according to Standard & Poor's.
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Old 05-01-2008, 11:54 AM
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of course, the value of the dollar has dropped precipitously so those are paper profit increases, not necessarily real profit increases.
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Old 05-01-2008, 03:35 PM
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on the price of oil and gasoline, here is an interesting piece that explains where the price rise may be coming from. You can read it all or you can listen to the radio conversation:

http://marketplace.publicradio.org/d...9/bush_moon_q/
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Old 05-01-2008, 04:06 PM
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It's a combination of factors creating the perfect storm. Supplies are indeed tight as excess capacity is getting constricted further and further because of maturing oil wells in Mexico, Kuwait and Saudia Arabia and the rise of China and India. Wait until more Chinese and Indians start driving. The Indian Tata car will really pinch supply even futher once mass produced and purchased. Is it any wonder why we're filling up our strategic reserves like crazy...

http://wheels.blogs.nytimes.com/2008...-cheapest-car/

Combine this with war, insurgent acts in Nigeria etc, speculation in oil futures, weak dollar and aging infrastructure (rigs out at sea and refineries) and we really have a mess on our hands.

As far as the dollar getting stronger because the Fed is signalling it will stop cutting rates well tell that to our creditors and suppliers...


Gulf States May End Dollar Pegs, Kuwait Minister Says

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...efer=worldwide

Iran dumps U.S. dollar for oil trades

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/BUSINESS....ap/index.html

Last edited by Mars : 05-01-2008 at 04:09 PM.
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Old 05-01-2008, 04:47 PM
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Originally Posted by phillyaggie View Post
on the price of oil and gasoline, here is an interesting piece that explains where the price rise may be coming from. You can read it all or you can listen to the radio conversation:

http://marketplace.publicradio.org/d...9/bush_moon_q/
interesting. (of course, the value of the dollar is off substantially more than 10% now) but what appears to be at work is more fundamental...it's inflationary monetary policy. A sure sign of excess liquidity (a nice phrase for inflated money supply) is rampant speculation as people scramble to find places to invest their cash. in our case, it has gone from tech stocks to mortgages to commodities, causing massive price increases in each. the "excess liquidity" is what has kept borrowing rates low and encouraged consumers to borrow and spend rather than save, thus exacerbating the trade deficit. This has been going on at least since the clinton administration and one coudl argue that our economy has been driven by the money supply expansion since FDR. there are those that argue that driving the economy using monetary expansion will result in eventual collapse as institutions adapt and expect the changes...the economy eventually can't outpace the decline in value of its currency & the resulting misallocation of capital. With regards to oil, if that money come out of futures, it will have to go somewhere and with interest rates set below inflation, you can bet it will go into another asset class. In other words, investors seem to be betting that oil is a good hedge against currency declines (or, betting that the 40% decline in the dollar is only the beginning) and provide a better return than such stodgy and heavily taxed investments such as dividends and interest bearing securities.
here's an interesting read about french currency exploits that isn't unrelated
http://books.google.com/books?id=jSt...with-thumbnail
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