$200 a barrel for oil is now likely. So is $7 gas. No, I'm not kidding. - Page 13 - PhillyBlog

Zigster · #**121** (**permalink**) 09-15-2008, 11:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zigster

In the meantime you wait for the GS to reverse their position on some drummed up news of a big find (like in Iraq as you say). Then they'll leave us holding the bag and run the economy into the gutter, but oil will return to the double digits.

Iraq could have largest oil reserves in the world
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle3964957.ece

dot-com, enron, credit, housing, and now the commodities bubble
how can you not remain skeptical?

does anyone still think that was supply and demand at work?

brian614 · #**122** (**permalink**) 09-15-2008, 11:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zigster

does anyone still think that was supply and demand at work?

Although I said it in another one of the 1,000 oil threads... this was NOT supply and demand.

Funny how all the people arguing with me probably won't turn up. I tried explaining how absurd it is to think that "India and China" or whatever boogeyman they had concocted somehow managed to drive demand high enough to inflate prices 150%+. I tried explaining that unless everyone in china had just bought another car and been driving it for a few months: that was impossible.

Now that it's trading around $96 barrel (I think I quoted high $80's as the supply-demand dictated price) I just want to say:

I told you so.

eldondre · #**123** (**permalink**) 09-15-2008, 12:07 PM

the market has actually worked including the futures market. setting aside the bubble phenomenon fueled by monetary expansion, higher oil futures signaled higher oil prices in the future. people cut back on how much oil they used for the first time in a generation, prices have fallen. moreover, since the heady days of of oil prices, the dollar has gained 11% against the euro. as the economy continues to tank, the price keeps going down. India and china are indeed fueling price increases but it's only part of the equation. there's been no proof of wrongdoing yet the conspiracists continue to believe. we may still reach $200 barrel...some day. markets are affected by psychology, that no one denies.

brian614 · #**124** (**permalink**) 09-15-2008, 12:11 PM

Don't get me wrong, China and India's use increase everyday.

I was just stuck in some inane arguments with clowns who tried to blame every last bit of the increase on their use.

pcounselor · #**125** (**permalink**) 09-15-2008, 12:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brian614

Although I said it in another one of the 1,000 oil threads... this was NOT supply and demand.

Funny how all the people arguing with me probably won't turn up. I tried explaining how absurd it is to think that "India and China" or whatever boogeyman they had concocted somehow managed to drive demand high enough to inflate prices 150%+. I tried explaining that unless everyone in china had just bought another car and been driving it for a few months: that was impossible.

Now that it's trading around $96 barrel (I think I quoted high $80's as the supply-demand dictated price) I just want to say:

I told you so.

Gosh, it feels good when you are proved right. Congratulations.
Now does this mean the current round of price gouging will bring forth multiple arrests of high level oil CEO's and refunds to the general public?

Zigster · #**126** (**permalink**) 09-15-2008, 12:19 PM

Attention:
Sugarcoma
and
Mars

We are calling you out!

eldondre · #**127** (**permalink**) 09-15-2008, 12:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brian614

Don't get me wrong, China and India's use increase everyday.

I was just stuck in some inane arguments with clowns who tried to blame every last bit of the increase on their use.

so then you agree that the market has actually worked here? much like blaming everything on China and India was wrong, so too were the people who alleged wrongdoing in the futures markets or that oil companies were gouging (despite having a normal profit margins, quite unlike the margins earned by investment bankers and lawyers)?

brian614 · #**128** (**permalink**) 09-15-2008, 12:33 PM

Falling dollar, speculation, and demand.

Not necessarily in that order. At least that was my take on it.

I never once blamed the oil companies.

Ezra · #**129** (**permalink**) 09-15-2008, 12:57 PM

Quote:

OPEC sees no oil shortage, would pump more if needed
Thu 8 May 2008, 14:53 GMT

LONDON, May 8 (Reuters) - World oil markets have enough supply now, but OPEC is willing to pump more if needed to keep pace with demand, the group's secretary-general said on Thursday.

Adbullah al-Badri also said in a statement that the 13-member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries holds more than 3 million barrels per day of spare production capacity for use if needed.

"There is clearly no shortage of oil in the market," the statement quoted him as saying.

http://africa.reuters.com/wire/news/....html?rpc=401&

jizay · #**130** (**permalink**) 09-15-2008, 04:24 PM

LOL. Just reading through this thread again. Awesome stuff. Alarmist Malthusians coming out of the woodwork just like in every other commodities boom. Will they ever learn?

Quote:

Originally Posted by phillyaggie

...
All these are limited resources. Once you run out of coal in a mine, that's it. It's not going to produce any more. We're staring at not just peak oil, but pretty much peak everything. How many humans can the planet Earth sustain at a reasonable living standard, that's an interesting topic. Technology improvements can change the horizon of that peak on a commodity, but any amount of technology isn't going to change the limited nature of these resources. You can extract more oil from various places that weren't economical earlier and are now so because of higher prices, but even those pools of oil have a limit.