A girl can dream, can't she? - Page 3 - PhillyBlog

lawmummy · #21 (**permalink**) 06-21-2005, 06:45 PM

I dunno that it's wrong. The sign said "from the mid 200s"

Malloy · #22 (**permalink**) 06-21-2005, 06:45 PM

Mummy: isnt there a large variety of homes on your street? Meaning mansion like twins and just plain 'ol row homes?

eldondre · #23 (**permalink**) 06-21-2005, 06:59 PM

this condo house didn't look like a mansion to me. what is true, is that these prices will prevent middle class folks from buying here...if they do, in fact, stick. that remains to be seen. the abatements last only ten years...joely means 20 years out I imagine.

Zeke · #24 (**permalink**) 06-21-2005, 07:08 PM

A similar phenomen occured in the late 80s. Not as dramatic as this one, but it was not pretty in the end.

I fear that the word on Roxborough has been leaked out. The hills offer topography which breaks up the monotony of a city area. (They also offer many challenges in the winter.) The crime is relatively low and the neighbors are great. You can walk to Main St but the parking is generally reasonable.

When to buy, when to sell? Let me dust off the crystal ball.

lawmummy · #25 (**permalink**) 06-21-2005, 07:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Malloy

Mummy: isnt there a large variety of homes on your street? Meaning mansion like twins and just plain 'ol row homes?

Oh yeah. Mostly twins, like mine, on the whole street. Hardly manses. Lots of rows towards the park - maybe half of my block consists of rows. A few singles closer to the train station (those rarely go up for sale).

That's actually one of the things I love about this area. The variety of housing stock is super.

I am hesitant to say that those condos are a trend, though. They're pricey, sure, but I don't know if the neighborhood can support it as it's not "new condo" - it's really a converted twin. I would have been thrilled to see it stay single family.

Anyhow, I don't believe that this will stifle middle class families from buying in. Again, relative to prices in the burbs, home prices are still really reasonable. One of my colleagues paid $750k for a "run of the mill" house in Bryn Mawr. I think both my house and my neighborhood are better.

Going back a year, I still agree with the statement I made then:

Quote:

I have to disagree that homes in this area are "overpriced" - in fact, I think that the prices over the last few years just now reflect what you're actually getting. The idea that you could, up until about 10 years ago, pay $65,000 for a 2500+ sq. ft. Victorian home near the park really shows that real estate in this area was severely deflated.

eldondre · #26 (**permalink**) 06-21-2005, 08:02 PM

Middle Class people are priced out of the main line too. hence the activity in places like bridgeport and phoenixville...if it continues, norristown. the eating up of farm land into the reaches of western chester county. it's not a Philadelphia problem it's a in various spots all over the country. more likely than not, we are in the midst of the largest housing bubble in history driven by easy money at the fed as well as mortgage backed securities. real estate has seen astronomical climbs in most major metro areas, spain, thailand, shanghai, etc. *pop*
it will come to an end. I fail to see how the middle class won't be squeezed when incomes rise at what, 3.5% annually versus triple that for home prices?

Jayfar · #27 (**permalink**) 06-21-2005, 08:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eldondre

Middle Class people are priced out of the main line too. hence the activity in places like bridgeport and phoenixville...if it continues, norristown. the eating up of farm land into the reaches of western chester county. it's not a Philadelphia problem it's a in various spots all over the country. more likely than not, we are in the midst of the largest housing bubble in history driven by easy money at the fed as well as mortgage backed securities. real estate has seen astronomical climbs in most major metro areas, spain, thailand, shanghai, etc. *pop*
it will come to an end. I fail to see how the middle class won't be squeezed when incomes rise at what, 3.5% annually versus triple that for home prices?

A big downside is how the overheated housing market works at cross purposes to the ideal of retaining graduates from Philly learning insitutions, but it seems to be a problem elsewhere too.

http://phillyblog.com/philly/showthr...648#post111648

Quote:

In the Boston area, with its expensive and fast-appreciating real estate market, some are concerned about an exodus of young people to more affordable locations.

"Negative population growth isn't necessarily a bad thing, but it is in the case of New England -- and Massachusetts in particular, because the population isn't shrinking uniformly. The population is shrinking primarily because young people are leaving Massachusetts," said Peter Francese, director of demographic forecasts at the New England Economic Partnership, a member-supported nonprofit organization that provides economic analyses and forecasts. He said thousands of younger workers have left Mass. because they can't get jobs that pay enough to cover the mortgage.

"The crux of our problem is we have not built enough affordable housing to maintain or to encourage young people to stay in the region,"he said.

http://www.bizjournals.com/bizoutlook/

lawmummy · #28 (**permalink**) 06-21-2005, 09:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eldondre

Middle Class people are priced out of the main line too. hence the activity in places like bridgeport and phoenixville...if it continues, norristown. the eating up of farm land into the reaches of western chester county. it's not a Philadelphia problem it's a in various spots all over the country. more likely than not, we are in the midst of the largest housing bubble in history driven by easy money at the fed as well as mortgage backed securities. real estate has seen astronomical climbs in most major metro areas, spain, thailand, shanghai, etc. *pop*
it will come to an end. I fail to see how the middle class won't be squeezed when incomes rise at what, 3.5% annually versus triple that for home prices?

I completely agree that housing prices are growing far too quickly in many areas of the country. So, I guess I should clarify. What I meant was that I don't think the rise in prices in Philadelphia should squeeze the middle class relative to the rise in prices elsewhere. In fact, it's just the opposite lately. I have friends looking to relocate to the area from places like Chester County because the combination of lower housing prices, high gas prices (hence, expensive commutes) and available housing of all kinds (condos, twins, duplexes, singles, apartments) makes the city appealing.

As an aside, I also believe that housing prices wouldn't hurt quite so much if our generation weren't overextended in other areas, such as credit cards and car payments. My brother's car payments far exceed my mortgage payment - and he's puzzled that he can't afford a house. My friends a few blocks over lament that their kid doesn't have a stay at home parent but they own cars that cost half of the cost of their home - and they're paying those off in three years, not thirty. The car payments plus insurance are more than my mortgage.

Again, I'm not saying that mortgage payments aren't high, but this generation is both over-extended and, I believe, paying for more "house" than they need (who needs a 400 sq. ft atrium, for Pete's sake?) for the sake of appearance (and the lure of low mortgage rates).

eldondre · #29 (**permalink**) 06-21-2005, 10:02 PM

being less inflated than other metro areas doesn't mean it's not overinflated. Chester Cty is part of the metro area and is suffering from the same issues as teh city...only their unemployment rate is under 4%. regardless, the traditional residents are being priced out by the ever expanding credit wave. to some extent I agree with, many peopel are overextended. however, I'm not so sure about the more hosue than you need. even small homes go for ridiculou ssums these days and none of this is being fueled byt a genuine economic boom or migration to the area. it's all paper money...electronic even. there is no additional wealth being created. therein lies the rub. people are buying here, most esp the condos, form other areas b/c by their standards it's cheap. but their standards don't apply here. the complete disregard for fundamentals is a sure sign of a bubble. the inky piece today had it right. you'll be okay if you are willing to saty a good long while but if you are looking to flip, someone's going to get caught holding the bag. it's happening all over the country. economic growth is moderate but the home price market is scorching. there is a disconnect between the hom emarket, a secondary market, and the underlying economy...those are the markets that create value...be they services, goods, or raw materials. it's all fueled by artificially low interest rates. that's my take, if I'm wrong and the market continues this climb indefinitely I'll be leaving Philly for some place I can afford. that's life I suppose.

lawmummy · #30 (**permalink**) 06-21-2005, 10:20 PM

Mortgages aren't paper money. They're credit, same as plastic, just guaranteed credit.

As to more "house" than you need, I put "house" in quotes because I wasn't talking strictly size, though I do know a number of people that buy 5BR homes because they're 5BR and not because they have the bodies to fill them. I know people who are paying for zip codes, regardless of size (there was an article in the Inky about that, too, awhile back). I know people who install granite countertops and top of the line jacuzzi tubs in mediocre homes just so they can brag about them, not because they use them.

I just think, as a society, we're a lot about appearance and bragging rights, which has lead to a lot of people spending money that they don't necessarily have to spend - and, in turn, increasing the going rates for goods and housing all down the pike.