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Old 07-29-2008, 02:00 PM
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Default If you read only one article about economics today...

Read this one. It's an article by a French "journalist, economist, philosopher and author" (according to wikipedia) that celebrates economics' "reach[ing] the threshold of scientific rationality." In the article, the author attempts to distill ten fundamental economic propositions that, in his opinion, would generally be accepted by leading economists. (In the interest of disclosure, Mr. Sorman is a somewhat controversial writer, and the article was published in a magazine called "City Journal," a publication of the Manhattan Institute, which is a conservative/free-market organization based in NYC. If you are prepared to dismiss the article on that basis alone, that's a shame.)

Given the prevalence of economic discussions on this board, from minimum wage to gas prices to free trade and on, I would strongly recommend this as reading for everyone here. I think it does a decent job of summarizing some broad and important economic themes that make their way into PB discourse.

You certainly don't have to agree with the propositions, but if you intend to criticize free-market economics in a relevant way, you certainly should be prepared to refute them.

As a teaser for the complete article, the propositions are the following:

Quote:
1. The market economy is the most efficient of all economic systems.

2. Free trade helps economic development.

3. Good institutions help development.

4. The best measure of a good economy is its growth.

5. Creative destruction is the engine of economic growth.

6. Monetary stability, too, is necessary for growth; inflation is always harmful.

7. Unemployment among unskilled workers is largely determined by how much labor costs.

8. While the welfare state is necessary in some form, it isn’t always effective.

9. The creation of complex financial markets has brought about economic progress.

10. Competition is usually desirable.
To be sure, these propositions do not reflect the universe of generally accepted economic principles. For example, I would add the following proposition: "#11. Incentives matter." Nevertheless, if you want a good introduction to some broad themes, this is a great place to start.
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Old 07-29-2008, 02:54 PM
ddelorenzo ddelorenzo is offline
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I was going to comment that
Quote:
2. Free trade helps economic development.

and

5. Creative destruction is the engine of economic growth.
combine to make a lot of people very angry but he addressed that nicely at the end of his article.

I have a question about #6.
Quote:
6. Monetary stability, too, is necessary for growth; inflation is always harmful.
I have read that deflation is worse than inflation, within reason of course, and that the central banks usually aim for slow inflation. Is this an example of erring on the side of caution, or a dispute between academics and the central bankers?
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Old 07-29-2008, 03:01 PM
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palvar palvar is offline
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Originally Posted by ddelorenzo View Post
I have read that deflation is worse than inflation, within reason of course, and that the central banks usually aim for slow inflation. Is this an example of erring on the side of caution, or a dispute between academics and the central bankers?

On one hand, deflation is worse than inflation for a psychological reason. Most people get a cost-of-living raise each year which isn't really a raise as it is intended to compensate for inflation. However, most people see it as a raise and thus would see a cost-of-living decrease as a pay cut even if their salary is still nominal. Thus, durind deflation, employers are often forced to layoff workers because they cannot reduce wages.
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Old 07-29-2008, 05:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by palvar View Post
On one hand, deflation is worse than inflation for a psychological reason. Most people get a cost-of-living raise each year which isn't really a raise as it is intended to compensate for inflation. However, most people see it as a raise and thus would see a cost-of-living decrease as a pay cut even if their salary is still nominal. Thus, durind deflation, employers are often forced to layoff workers because they cannot reduce wages.
As much as I admire the work of Milton Friedman, I am terrible with monetary policy, so everything I'm about to say might be wrong. With that introduction:

I think what you've written explains part of the problem. Certainly the downside "stickiness" of many prices (especially, as you have noted, labor) can squeeze certain employers, potentially leading to bankruptcies as the price of goods fall, but the cost of labor remains relatively high. Also, there is a risk of a deflationary spiral in which people delay purchases, expecting prices to fall further, which causes a drop-off in demand, with commensurate effects.

The other part relates to the impact of inflation and deflation on interest rates. Nominal interest rates represent the sum of two components: real interest rates and inflation. The real interest rate represents the "cost of money" in the sense of being the amount you have to pay someone, in the absence of inflation, to borrow money. But, because money is, in effect, a commodity, the cost of money is subject to the impact of inflation. Thus, to enable sellers of money (i.e., lenders) to earn a sufficient return both to account for the impact of inflation as well as to earn a profit on the "sale," they need to charge an interest rate equal to the real interest rate plus inflation. (This explains, for example, why long-term mortgage rates have been rising recently; because expectations of higher inflation have increased.)

This system may work when you have inflation, but if the nominal interest rate has been reduced to zero, borrowers are still paying a real interest rate equal to the expected rate of deflation. To steal an example from Ben Bernanke, quoted from a 2002 speech:

Quote:
To take what might seem like an extreme example (though in fact it occurred in the United States in the early 1930s), suppose that deflation is proceeding at a clip of 10 percent per year. Then someone who borrows for a year at a nominal interest rate of zero actually faces a 10 percent real cost of funds, as the loan must be repaid in dollars whose purchasing power is 10 percent greater than that of the dollars borrowed originally. In a period of sufficiently severe deflation, the real cost of borrowing becomes prohibitive. Capital investment, purchases of new homes, and other types of spending decline accordingly, worsening the economic downturn.
Moreover, just as inflation helps borrowers by enabling them to repay fixed debts more cheaply with inflated dollars, deflation crushes borrowers by forcing them to repay fixed debt with deflated dollars.

Turning again to Dr. Bernanke:
Quote:
This burden arises because, even if debtors are able to refinance their existing obligations at low nominal interest rates, with prices falling they must still repay the principal in dollars of increasing (perhaps rapidly increasing) real value. When William Jennings Bryan made his famous "cross of gold" speech in his 1896 presidential campaign, he was speaking on behalf of heavily mortgaged farmers whose debt burdens were growing ever larger in real terms, the result of a sustained deflation that followed America's post-Civil-War return to the gold standard
Lastly, deflation constrains the most powerful policy tool at the Federal Reserve's disposal -- namely, its ability to set short-term interest rates. Because the Fed can't lower nominal interest rates below zero, once nominal interest rates reach that point, the Fed can't stimulate the economy any further through its interest-rate mechanism. Therefore, if nominal interest rates are at zero, but the economy is still in the dumps, the Fed has been deprived of one of its most powerful tools for economic stimulus. If my recollection is correct, this is the problem that plagued Japan all through the 1990s.
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