Aren't we looking at a new tax structure that will increase City property tax revenue?

I'm sure Nutter will be closing in on the tax dead beats too, which will generate some income.

Just some thoughts. I don't claim to be any kind of an expert.

__________________
___________________________



___________________________

Learn the truth about Danny Faulkners
murder and his murderer here:

http://www.danielfaulkner.com/

sorry if i've posted this before, but here is my fave doom-'n'-gloom housing blog. it compiles bubble articles and pix, with reader comments. have a look at the photos of harebrained developments.
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/js_slideshow/
philly's represented in there.
before i saw these pix, i was thinking that philly had at least some built-in defense against falling prices because philly has been so dramatically undervalued for so long. but there are some condo projects here that are just asinine. i get the feeling also that the exuberance here is driven by an underdog desire to be just as good as other places in the real estate game. but philly isn't nyc, la, boston, etc. (and no, i'm not bashing philly, just stating a fact.) those places are being affected by the cooling off of the market, and they don't have the problems of high wage and business taxes, high crime, incompetent government, poor education that philly has.
that said, i really don't know what's going to happen. but i see a fair amount of for rent signs on the same vacant buildings as for sale signs, and that means that flips are going sour. could be a bloody mess by this time next year. but then again...

Not true. Tax abatements are never given to reduce the the taxes on a place. they may defer an increase, but they do not erode the base.

__________________
Peace Out, Philly!

Philly people think they are the only city with high crime, high taxes, and incompetent government. I'll admit that all of those are here, but other cities have that too. I think one of the things the city has going for it is a high level of DISCUSSION about these problems and what to do about it. That makes me fairly hopeful. A lot does ride on the next mayor.

I have been looking at houses and it strikes me that an awful lot of the stuff on the market was bought in the last four years or so and is being listed at increases that seem excessive. I just don't see that the market justifies it. If you bought at $275 three years ago, should you really get to sell at $400 now? I don't see that there's a lot more high-paying jobs in the city then there were three years ago, or that the neighborhoods have improved THAT much.

Philly is "special". Philly is "different". Everyone wants to live here.

Philly drops to 6th-largest US city
Philadelphia Daily News, PA - Mar 22, 2007

http://www.philly.com/dailynews/loca...U_S__city.html

gekko, I'm personally very pleased to see us dropping in the population rankings. This is very good for the ctiy and I often wish it would accelerate. Most of the drop is coming from low income families that are leaving. These families don't add to the city tax base and do add to the burden. I have nothing against them, but I do think they will definitely have a better chance persuing the american dream elsewhere. Meanwhile, the burden on Pheonix's tax base is growing rapidly with far larger influxes of unskilled low income mexican immigrants. Good luck to them.

I also love the posts about buying million dollar houses for fractions of that next year. I like to take markets as reasonable predictors and with them predicting fed easing before the end of the year I don't think you're going to buy that million dollar mansion for half off come next winter. I'll admit that some major disaster could cause such a rapid real estate bust, but that's highly unlikely.

I like the point about prices being out of control in some of the terrible neighborhoods. I haven't figured out what to make of that yet, but it is going to catch up to center city in some way eventually.

I don't really see housing prices in Philadelphia going anywhere up or down for some time without real reform to the city's "Oh we can't cut taxes because our city services will be cut" attitude. Last time I checked, did we have good schools? Did we have low crime? Was SEPTA well run? Do city employees who call you names for making them get up and find a document deserve a retirement of riches? Of course we can't hire more cops, we pay some of them twice as much as NYC cops! Are high taxes aren't buying us much, but wealthy city workers and until we fix that, I don't think real estate will be headed north anytime soon. In fact, I do see downside as the first tax abatements end.

You can read as many articles as you like, but until you are actually out there you will not know what's happening in a market. As some of you might know, I'm probably one of the few people on this thread that has actually been in the market looking for a place. I started my search very early in Jan although my lease ends in late Jun. I've looking at over 10 properties in condo buildings with at least 20 units for 2 Bedroom units in the low 300ks in 19106, 19107, and 19103. Here are my observances:

1. There are alot of units that did not sell last summer that are currently being relisted.
2. Most units that I've seen have been on the market for over 90 days. These are not run down places. Renovated with nice kitchen and baths.
3. Sellers are still not moving much on price hoping that buyers will come out in spring 2007.
4. Some sellers are still listing at agressive prices (probably getting bad advice from a realtor who just got their license number). Example:

2 BD unit in 19107 near 10th and spruce in a building with about 15 units. Seller bought in 2001 at 130k. Now asking $330k. There has been about 20k in upgrades.

__________________
I am the walrus

I couldn't agree more. I really hope the next mayor either cans these "I deserve more" loads that work for the city, or at least demand that we get the services we overpay for. In today's world, no one deserves free healthcare when the majority of the city's citizens are paying outrageous amounts for theirs. Once the city workers and unions are dealt with, CC real estate prices will again start to rise.

I would've guessed higher-income working class and middle class folks were leaving, for the suburbs and better schools, safer neighborhoods, etc. Philadelphia seems to be affordable for the poor, actually. Why would the poor be leaving? Where would they be going?