Just how sick is the housing market? - Page 305 - PhillyBlog

Puffin Jr · #**3041** (**permalink**) 05-20-2008, 11:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SuzyH

P.S. Here's a letter from a United States Senator to her constituents that estimates potential losses to the economy as a result of the extreme housing deflation at 1.4 quadrillion dollars. (and no, that is not a typo, 1 quadrillion = 1000 trillion.)

That makes absolutely no sense at all. Think about it. 1.4 quadrillion dollars? The US GDP was abou 14 trillion is 2007. So the potential losses are 100x us GDP? The total market cap of all publicly traded companies in the world is not even anywhere near this.

Besides, read the letter. It uses 2.8 million foreclosures x $50,000 loss per foreclosure. That works out to 140 billion. That number I can believe. You should do a gut-check of any numbers you see. If they seem like absolute crap, they probably are.

jizay · #**3042** (**permalink**) 05-20-2008, 11:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Puffin Jr

That makes absolutely no sense at all. Think about it. 1.4 quadrillion dollars? The US GDP was abou 14 trillion is 2007. So the potential losses are 100x us GDP? The total market cap of all publicly traded companies in the world is not even anywhere near this.

LOL @ 1.4 quadrillion

I have Suzy the genius on ignore, so thanks for quoting this gem. Hilarious.

Mars · #**3043** (**permalink**) 05-20-2008, 12:04 PM

The Quadrillion range seems amiss....that would be some massive overleveraging. From what I've read the estimates are in the trillions and actually do exceed GDP depending on who and what figures you want to believe. Regardless, the housing downturn is a major hit to the U.S. economy much of it due to wall street engaging in the securities orgy. We can thank the repeal of the Glass Steagall act which actually occured on Clinton's watch.....lots of blame to go around with this housing mess.

As far as renting....sadly the American "dream' of owning a home has turned into a national nightmare.

Tim K · #**3044** (**permalink**) 05-20-2008, 12:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mars

Sarcasm....

whooooosh!

In this thread it is hard to tell when people actually believe the crazy things they say!

Tim K · #**3045** (**permalink**) 05-20-2008, 12:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SuzyH

Great, well that was like pulling teeth. So it appears that you are now willing to indicate that not disclosing that a car is provided in a residential real estate purchase to the lender is illegal. If this is not what you mean by the above then please say so.

So you have now said to your realtor brethren, if you are participating in a residential real estate transaction where a a car or anything else of significant value is provided by the seller, and if there is a lender, and if you do not inform the lender, then you are participating in a fraud.

Your contention is that the practice of providing a car (or anything else of value) without informing the lender is highly uncommon, and that it very rarely, if ever happened. My contention is that the practice was common during the run-up and is still occurring. As far as I am aware there are no other issues on this point where our positions differ.

The other issue yet to be resolved is that the TrendMLS (according to Prudential HomeExpert) specifies that sales volume in the Philadelphia area is down 32.8%. According to your calculated figures, that number is 15%. Either way the demand dropoff is staggering, but your value does not concur with published values. Why?

Well, since you previously implied that any transaction where the buyer received credits, personal property, etc. were illegal I couldn't "admit" to anything. Now that you are clarifying it to only say that it applies to not informing the lender...which is fraud.

As for the numbers, that article you references cites the 8 county region as down 32%. My numbers are only for Philadelphia proper.

Mars · #**3046** (**permalink**) 05-20-2008, 01:11 PM

Paulson cites housing as ‘biggest risk’

By James Politi and Chris Bryant in Washington
Published: May 17 2008 02:02 | Last updated: May 17 2008 02:02

Hank Paulson on Friday said that housing remained “the biggest risk” to the US economy, as new data showed construction of family homes dropping to the lowest level in 17 years.

Speaking at a conference in Washington, the US Treasury secretary said that the correction in the housing market had “further to go”, but that the US was “working through the excess inventory”
.
Overall housing starts rose 8.2 per cent to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 1,032,000 units in April, the biggest monthly increase in more than two years and a big improvement on the 940,000 units forecast by economists.

But, although the headline rate was better than expected, on the back of a jump in construction of blocks of family dwellings, construction of single family homes, considered to be a better barometer of the housing market, fell 1.7 per cent to 692,000, the lowest level since January 1991.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/88fc6b92-2...077b07658.html

SuzyH · #**3047** (**permalink**) 05-20-2008, 01:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Puffin Jr

That makes absolutely no sense at all. Think about it. 1.4 quadrillion dollars? The US GDP was abou 14 trillion is 2007. So the potential losses are 100x us GDP? The total market cap of all publicly traded companies in the world is not even anywhere near this.

Besides, read the letter. It uses 2.8 million foreclosures x $50,000 loss per foreclosure. That works out to 140 billion. That number I can believe. You should do a gut-check of any numbers you see. If they seem like absolute crap, they probably are.

Yep, it is 140 billion, but I like the 1.4 quadrillion number as presented in the US Senator's letter better. It sounds cooler.

Did you know that a quadrillion doesn't have to be 10^15? It can also mean 10^24. So that number could actually include the market cap for all publicly traded companies in this and about 10 trillion planets like ours.

Now you can begin to see what realtors and their appraiser cronies have done to us. Not only have they bankrupted this planet, but they've bankrupted another 10 trillion planets just like ours. It's going to take us a long time to pay all that back, and I'm sure the other planets are going to be pissed. If they invade us over this, you'll know who to blame, and don't say that I didn't warn you.

MrBrightside · #**3048** (**permalink**) 05-20-2008, 02:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SuzyH

Now you can begin to see what realtors and their appraiser cronies have done to us. Not only have they bankrupted this planet, but they've bankrupted another 10 trillion planets just like ours. It's going to take us a long time to pay all that back, and I'm sure the other planets are going to be pissed. If they invade us over this, you'll know who to blame, and don't say that I didn't warn you.

Thanks for (finally) confirming what I have been suspecting for a long, long time.

(someone's been smokin' a little too much of that hoo-haa)

Gekko · #**3049** (**permalink**) 05-20-2008, 08:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by condoguru

Mine too. The benefit for myself in all of this is the fact that people who no longer qualify for mortgages with much more strict lending standards are forced to rent. The rental market in Philly has never been better.

failed flippers + failed projects + empty buildings + unsold inventory + foreclosures = more supply = lower rents.

dcmanager · #**3050** (**permalink**) 05-20-2008, 09:41 PM

don't tell my tenants that. They are barely able to muster up a whimper each time I jack up their rates 8-10%. I only do 1 year leases just for tthis reason. Maybe im just a cold bastard but you silly gekko, are clueless.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gekko

failed flippers + failed projects + empty buildings + unsold inventory + foreclosures = more supply = lower rents.