If you're using excel, you can also turn the markers on at the data points in the graph. The shapes may be easier to pick out for people having a hard time with the colors.

how does this correlate with mortgage rates over this period?

If I were a realtor (and thankfully I'm not), I would try to get this guy Yun to shut up. If he's the head economist for the National Association of realtors (he is), and if he is making these ridiculous predictions (he does), it can only further redound to the detriment of those he represents (i.e. realtors).

From this post:

"One could reasonably argue that Yun is committing consumer fraud by trying to entice people to buy into a market that is poised to fall further. I suppose he thinks his ridiculous predictions will restore confidence in the real estate market. If in fact his role is to spread optimism, the NAR should be legally required to post an appropriate disclaimer stating their real purpose. "

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080513/toll_...ales.html?.v=3

Toll Brothers preliminary 2Q sales fall 30 percent

Samteac

The chart suggests that there will be heightened credit and liquidity risk for banks. Their interbank borrowing costs have been rising and will continue to rise b/c they can't price the value of their collateral since they chopped them up into exotic securities and sold them off anyway. Thus their balance sheets are all screwed up due to overleveraging in securities and giving out loans to people working at McDonald's. This means that rates will most likely rise in the long-term as banks, mutual funds and corporations that lend in the bank borrowing market keep more cash to themselves. The Fed printing money and injecting liquidity is the only thing keeping some banks from completely going under although it's only staving off inevitable bankruptcy. As Thomas Paine wrote in The Decline and Fall of the English System of Finance:

"Insolvency always takes place before bankruptcy: for bankruptcy is nothing more than the publication of that insolvency."

The massive and surprise losses resulting from the U.S. housing market collapse have created a lot of variation among financial institutions when they try and borrow money. Again, Banks that are light on funding or carry poor credit as I noted above are likely to pay a higher rate in the forward currency market. Confidence in and between banks has been dented big time after the Bear Stearns fiasco. Basically, investors and banks are reluctant to lend cash to banks, because they wonder who the next casuality will be. Hence Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac getting expanded powers by the FHA although they too are imperiled and will require a taxpayer bailout. The Fed is just kicking the can down the road b/c it's an election year and you don't want economic chaos during a transfer of power. It is too dangerous to the establishment...

In short, homes still remain immensely overvalued with respect to incomes as the chart I provided shows. The housing market thus has some time to go to correct itself. Hopefully, it doesn't overcorrect.The only thing that enabled people to afford the bubble prices in the last 3-5 years was the availability of cheap credit thanks to the Fed. That spigot for some banks has either been completely turned off or is just a trickle. If the pipes freeze and burst then we will have major problems....

Toll Brothers: Tough times in housing sales Toll Bros. Inc., of Horsham, said today that times were still tough for the housing market and that preliminary results showed 30 percent lower sales for home building in its fiscal second quarter, which ended April 30. "The just-completed spring selling season was quite weak in most markets as buyers remained on the sidelines," Robert I. Toll, chairman and chief executive officer, said as the company announced preliminary numbers in advance of a full second-quarter filing June 3. The company did not offer per-share information in its preliminary numbers. "Sooner or later, they will buy. But, unfortunately, we can't predict when," Toll said, during a conference call. The luxury home builder reported preliminary revenue of $817.9 million for home building, down from $1.17 billion a year earlier. Revenue from land sales was $800,000 for the quarter, compared with $2 million in the period a year earlier. Sales for home building for the last six months were down 27 percent, to $1.66 billion from $2.26 billion in the year-earlier period. The average price for a new-home contract signed in the quarter slipped to $590,000 from $711,000 a year earlier, and $634,000 in the first 2008 quarter. http://www.philly.com/philly/busines..._down_30_.html

Housing Prices Tumble in Two-Thirds of U.S. Cities (Update3)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...efer=worldwide

Hey, I'm not reading all this, but thought I would provide another data point for you guys. All the med students are selling.

Sold for $278,500 bought 3 years ago for $250K. On the market for 45 days.

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You'll need a very large person banging into your abdomen repeatedly to obtain such numbness, which is connected to your inner thigh region

Just to put this info in context:

Philadelphia area % change is -0.7%,

Best is Binghamton, NY +11.8%

Worse is Sacramento -- Arden -- Arcade -- Roseville, CA -29.2%

Same article but this one provides the actual data.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/12/real...ion=2008051314

Potential homebuyers afraid to commit By CRISSA SHOEMAKER DEBREE Bucks County Courier Times Nervous homebuyers looked but didn't buy during the second quarter, cutting Toll Brothers' homebuilding revenue by 30 percent. Toll said most U.S. home markets have weakened. But a surprising high point has been Naples, Fla., an area that's among the hardest hit by the housing downturn. He gave the area an A-minus, while all other markets in Florida were given an F. (He said Philadelphia suburbs are a C-minus, but the Pocono Mountain region is an F-minus.) “You can't give away stuff in the East right now,” he said. “It's very surprising.” http://www.phillyburbs.com/pb-dyn/ne...8-1533750.html