When will real estate market bottom?

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The last boom ended around 1990 and took four years to bottom -- and that boom is tiny compared to our latest one. Expect no less than 5 years (2011) before we reach bottom this time.

I think this market is the worse in quite some time, due to all the factors involved.

Which real estate market are you refering to? Since this is the Center City Philadelphia forum, I predict this market will just plateau for another year and then start climbing again .....except...... for the multi-million dollar properties which will bottom in 2010 and recover by 2015.

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I'm more curious about NYC and when the RE will eventually collapse there. It's already collapsing in Queens and parts of BK but it hasn't touched Manhattan yet.

As for Philly... when there are articles like this one (below) telling New Yorkers they can move here for less than 1/2 of what they're paying to live in Manhattan--have all these perks--and use AMTRAK... I don't think our market is dying.

http://www.nydailynews.com/services/...ladelphia.html

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Buh-bye.

These move-to-Philly pieces appear every so often in NY papers. Here's one from 8/2005: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/14/fa...=1&oref=slogin

That piece appeared near the peak of the RE market here, yet the RE market is now struggling here. It doesn't look like that kind of article has much of an effect in helping prices in Philly.

As it turns out, that 2005 NYTimes piece turned out to be just PR fluff. Even the writer admitted so. You think the NY Daily News is more legitimate than the NYTimes?

Some people who work in Manhattan do live in Philly. I knew people who did so in the 90's, so this idea is nothing new. I assure you that New Yorkers know that Philly exists, so I doubt that these kind of articles will cause enough of an exodus to help prices here -- especially with prices dropping like mad in Queens, Brooklyn, Long Island, etc...

Ha, all the New Yorkers I know are so hung up on what neighborhood they live in in Manhattan, I can't imagine any of those people moving to Philly... Just the thought of working downtown makes them shudder.

Of course, I'm sure there are a lot of mid and back office types that could move down here - if they didn't already prefer life in North Jersey...

Realistically, I think the industries that are going to be hit the worst from this economic down-cycle are financial firms, and therefore it's more likely RE will be affected more in the financial centers, (don't forget Wilmington and Charlotte), as the economy slows.

More on that article.

The writer is a Penn grad, yet implies that he has never before taken Amtrak between Philly and NYC. OK, maybe he drove in the past. But he also says that it's a straight shot on I-95, which is totally not the case.

In the stock market they graph prices and that defines highs and lows. The press doesnt really carry stats or graphs on volume, that is shares traded.

In real estate it seems volume is talked about as much as prices.

Of course they are interrelated but which do most of you consider dominent- average prices or units sold?

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Good point.

All that matters is price. Volume may be a leading indicator, but in the long run the only people who care about volume are people who work in the RE industry.