Media aside, stock traders regard volume as an important statistic. Volume is an indicator of liquidity in the market. If noone is buying, it doesn't matter what prices are. The same goes for real estate. Both volume and price are important statistics.

A) I don't care when this RE market bottoms.
I do care that there are some great deals over the next 3-??? months until it goes back to 2000-2006 levels, for anyone that wants to do the research and put in the time.
If buyers are interested, they should be buying. Very simple.
You can't time a market bottom. Stock pickers try it, and most are ridiculously unsuccessful (although those that do it it successfully get lots of press, and make everyone else think they can do it regularly, and thus continue that cycle of thought for the next round.)

B) Volume should matter to anyone who cares about price, because as noted it is a key (if not THE key) supporting factor behind price.

C) For a "bad" real estate market, many people I talk to who've bought and sold RE for 10-30 years say that this is the softest landing they've seen.

D) I don't consider it a bad market, I consider it a normal market. In a bad market, 18% mortgage interest rates, 20-40% down payments, etc. would be par for the course.

E) Yes, I am a real estate agent, and no, I am not quitting anytime soon. I started working with a plan, and I am sticking to it.
I expect the next few years of commissions to be able to grow significantly the investment portion of my portfolio though.

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Real Estate Practitioner & Quasi-Intellectual
ERA Aarch Realty LLC
Urban Green Partnership

You analogy is off base. Some of the bigger drops in the stock market occurred on days with huge volume. Also, some of the bigger rises in the stock market occurred on huge volume. However, high volume in the RE coincides with upward pressure in prices.

I don't think I elaborated enough.

I have no doubt some of the larger stock price drops & rises came on days with high volumes, in fact I fully anticipated that the kind of frenzied trading that did happen on those days (or sometimes a few days) is exactly the kind of blind optimism/pessimism that caused the drop/rise.

But to initiate a significant rise back up after a large percentage fall (or a fall after a large percentage rise), there needs to be at least somewhat comparable volume.

Otherwise, what happens is the market plods along until at a minimal if any appreciation (like what happened in much of the country's RE market from 1991 to 2000) until there started to be enough buying and selling volume to increase prices.

The plodding along is comparatively limited in duration in the stock market (as compared to residential RE) because of other factors such as increased liquidity, underlying business models, etc.

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Real Estate Practitioner & Quasi-Intellectual
ERA Aarch Realty LLC
Urban Green Partnership

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Fumo is a douchebag loser and who'll be in prison soon enough.
http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/h.../22873379.html

You may be right. Unless there is a complete meltdown in our economy, we may indeed be heading toward a "normal market". The problem is that the past 5 years were so absurdly abnormal on the "good" side that there is a lot of room to come down before prices reflect that we are in a "normal market".

But keep in mind that you don't need skyrocketing interest rates to cause a "bad" RE market. The Japanese RE market dropped 50% from its peak in 1991 even though interest rates remained extremely low the entire time. Why? Because RE in Japan was overvalued -- and even low interest rates couldn't save the day.

Maybe yes, maybe no...
if stock shares are down it would effect mainly stock brokers, but when real estate sales are down it effects much more then just real estate brokers. Many businesses are suffering right now, such as furniture stores, movers, all the trades involved in new construction such as electricians, capenters etc, plus the government.

If sales volume is down then Philadelphia/PA are not collecting that hefty 4% transfer tax and the wage taxes on those who build, sell, mortgage those home sales. That's a lot of money.

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http://granor.net/

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Out of 40 votes Most say before 2009 OR 2010/2011, sort of an inverted bell curve.

In the stock market they say most are usually wrong.... does that mean 2009 might be a good bet?

Personally, I think it's all based in psychology, and the turn-around will occur with the elections. The psychology of the entire nation will shift when Bush leaves the White House, whether you agreed with the Administration or not and whether your pick for his predecessor gets in or not.

Everyone seems to be out there telling me it's all doom and gloom--and not just in housing--but Best Buy was bursting at the seams on Friday with people buying 40+" flat screens and high-end appliances. The shopping centers and malls were packed with people by 4am. Multiple friends of mine have bought homes, and new or recently renovated homes at that. Home sales in Delaware (don't forget the tax benefits) at the $250-500k range have slowed, but haven't stalled by any stretch of the imagination.

I think that when this is all said and done, the demand for new homes is going to be stronger than it was in 2001-2005 and I think it will happen within 12 months.

So you're predicting that within a year RE demand will be higher than the biggest housing bubble in U.S. history? Well, that's one possibility, I guess.

But why? Because you saw a lot of people at Best Buy this weekend? Let's see how those sales numbers compare to last years'. Maybe things aren't as bad as some think -- but your observation at shopping time doesn't mean anything until you can compare it to previous years' sales.

As for having friends who have bought nice homes, that's meaningless in the grand scheme of things. For instance, I know someone who recently bought a very nice home in Gladwyne. Because he works in finance, he may lose his job very soon (his words). So his situation is good and bad.

I don't see how a the psychological impact of a new president will affect the housing market. This housing boom just happened to occur during Bush's administration. The internet boom happened during Clinton's administration. The sitting president had little to do with either of those booms.